劉兆祥: 港股是否見底回升，要多留意一兩天

2008年6月23日 06:08:32 p.m. HKT, AAFN

信誠證券投資部經理劉兆祥表示，港股近日的強勢讓人有種不尋找的感覺，中美股市大幅回落，但港股卻不想調整，究竟反映甚麼呢？港股越是不想調整，大市便越以估計是否見底。相對全球其他市場，例如美股上周4期結算而大幅拋售，見底回升機會頗高，但港股是否還有一輪拋售來完成尋底，還是今天已經算是見底回升，要多留意一兩天了。 本周大家要注意兩個較重要的情況，第一是本周五期指結算，因此未來數天大市表現都是為結算及轉倉活動服務，另外是周二及三是美國聯儲局議息，基本上大家都估計是維持不變，對大市影響有限，但半年結的櫥窗活動刺激美股反彈。阿思達克財經新聞組

Oil: Fundamentals Trump Rhetoric from Saudis, Politicians, Barron's

Posted Jun 23, 2008 10:50am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities
Related: RDS-A, XOM, COP, OIL, USO, DUG, CVX

The much ballyhooed Saudi oil summit came and went this weekend with a pledge from the hosts to increase daily production by 200,000 barrels, which just isn't enough supply to bring prices lower. (Notably, 200,00 barrels is the same amount as production lost at a Shell installation in Nigeria after rebel attacks last week.)

This weekend also brought a Barron's cover story declaring oil to be in a bubble that's ready to pop.

After an overnight rally in London, oil prices were recently declining in New York as the dollar rallied - a stronger dollar being just one factor Barron's cited as a possible killer of the oil boom. But for me, the story recalls the old saying: "If 'ifs' and 'butts' were candy and nuts, everyday would be Christmas."

Also, bubbles rarely peak when 'everyone' is calling for their demise, as Henry and I discuss in the accompanying video. When reading and hearing the chatter about the "oil bubble" about to pop, consider another old saying: "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent," as was the case with tech stocks in the 1990s or housing earlier this decade.

Finally, $100 oil isn't exactly cheap, as Barron's concedes. With all the talk about speculation driving the market and politicians recommending all sorts of bizarre and anti-market "solutions," the bottom line is still the bottom line: Oil supply is not keeping up with demand and no amount of rhetoric from OPEC or U.S. officials can change that fundamental truth.