Hong Kong MTR Song

實戰理論：地產股繼續跑輸

大行報告繼續蜂擁而至，似乎立心要將港股置諸死地。大行絕對沒有義務去將報告公諸於世，市場上的散戶也不是其目標客戶，要揚名立萬也不是此時去做。若然此等唱淡的報告在年初，或者去年9至10月公佈，筆者絕對信服及佩服，起碼全世界一齊高位減持。但在如此低位之時公佈，若然命中的話，都聊勝於無。筆者一直強調，散戶要培養獨立思考。看分析、讀報告，不要以貼士的心態去做，而是要聽取其分析及理據。更重要是要明白評論所指的時間性。地產股近日潰不成軍，對此筆者絕不感到意外。「負利率、減息周期要買樓，樓價一定升」，作此建議者，現在又有何解釋？難道現在減息周期完結，大家又要賣樓乎？當日筆者已力陳一點，就是買樓其實是一個重大的決定，因為要承擔頗為大額的負債，減息周期並不會長久，可能在9個月至一年內完結。故此，筆者亦一直指出，地產股絕對會跑輸大市。

大市即將突破悶局

當然，若然唱淡地產股的報告真的令到地產股再大幅下跌，可能短期內會有反彈的可能。博地產股反彈勝算當然不及中移動（941）或其他中資電訊股，但當中應以長實（001）及新地（016）為首選。特別是長實，其股價相對資產淨值的折讓較大。昨晚議息，明日期指結算，這兩天還是先行靠邊站。第三季的港股將會風起雲湧，筆者不相信現時的悶局還會維持得太久。現時應做足準備工夫，選定一些合適的衍生工具，待方向一明確之時，便可大舉入市。

作者沈振盈為證監會持牌人士

Fed talking tough on the threat of inflation

Wednesday June 25, 9:31 am ET

By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

Fed likely to keep interest rates unchanged but employ tough talk about inflation threats
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues, concluding a two-day meeting, are expected to keep talking tough about inflation while stopping short of actually doing anything, at least right away.

The Fed is widely expected at the conclusion of Wednesday's discussions to express more concerns about inflation and in that way signal that rate increases could be on the way later this year.
However, at the same time, private economists are in agreement that the Fed will not actually start raising interest rates at this week's meeting, given how weak the economy is at the moment.
"The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University. "The economy seems to be slipping into a recession at the same time that inflation is getting worse."

In economic news Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that orders to factories for big-ticket durable goods were unchanged in May as strength in aircraft and cmputers was offset by widespread weakness in other areas.

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its gauge of consumer sentiment dropped in June to the lowest reading in 16 years as soaring gas prices, rising unemployment and sinking home values continued to batter Americans.

The opposing forces of weak growth and recession put the central bank in a bind. Its main policy tool -- changes in interest rates -- can only address one of those problems at a time. The Fed can cut interest rates to spur consumer and business spending and economic growth or it can raise interest rates to slow spending and growth and ease inflation pressures.

From September through April, the Fed aggressively cut interest rates seven times in an effort to keep a severe credit crunch and prolonged housing slump from pushing the country into a deep recession.
However, after a series of sizable rate cuts as the credit crisis was roiling global financial markets at the beginning of this year, the Fed at its last meeting in April reduced rates by a more modest quarter-point. That pushed the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, down to 2 percent. The funds rate had been at 5.25 percent before the central bank began cutting rates on Sept. 18.

If the Fed leaves the funds rate unchanged, it will mean that commercial banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans, will remain unchanged as well at 5 percent, the lowest it has been since late 2004. It will be the first Fed meeting without any change in interest rates since August.
While a stand-pat rate decision is widely anticipated, financial markets will be closely watching exactly how Bernanke and his colleagues explain their views about economic conditions. Investors will be searching for clues on whether the Fed is feeling increasing pressure to start raising interest rates in light of soaring prices for oil, food and other commodities.

In a speech on June 9, Bernanke took a tough line on inflation, saying that the Fed would "strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations." Those comments and tough talk from other Fed officials unnerved investors who went from thinking the Fed might leave rates unchanged for most of this year to starting to worry that rate hikes could begin this summer.

It also left some economists grumbling that once again the Bernanke Fed was unnecessarily roiling markets.
"When it comes to clearly communicating policy intentions to financial markets, the Bernanke Fed has been the gang that can't shoot straight," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
Other analysts, however, said it might have been Bernanke's intent to send out a strong anti-inflation warning, especially since it was coupled with a comment in an earlier speech about the Fed chief's concerns that the weak dollar was adding to U.S. inflation problems. The remarks taken together had the impact of bolstering the dollar, which had been tumbling.

Bernanke was assisted in his efforts to talk up the value of the dollar by President Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson as the administration has grown worried that the dollar's weakness has contributed to the big jump in oil prices, which are priced in dollars.

Some economists saw the comments by Bernanke and his colleagues as an effort to convince the markets that the central bank is serious about fighting inflation without having to start raising interest rates at a time when the economy remains very weak.

"It is a tricky thing that the Fed is trying to pull off here, trying to keep rates low enough to help the economy while not igniting rising inflation expectations," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.
The last thing the central bank wants is a repeat of the 1970s, when successive oil price shocks did trigger a wage-price spiral that sent inflation soaring and was only subdued when the Fed under Paul Volcker pushed interest rates to levels not seen since the Civil War.

"In the 1970s, the Fed allowed inflation expectations to get out of control. The central bank does not want that to happen again," said David Jones, head of DMJ Advisors, a Denver-based consulting firm.

Stocks 'Dangerous, Very Bearish' Unless Oil Crashes, Says Money Manager

Posted Jun 24, 2008 03:50pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities
Related: CSTR, AGU, POT, NTDOY.PK, C, MAS, OIL

WallStrip founder and money manager Howard Lindzon has an investing philosophy: "Find trends, ride 'em, and get off!"

So what's a trend-follower to do in a market that's trending down?

Until very recently (as in this morning), Lindzon has been short the market via index funds and long individual stocks with upward momentum like Coinstar and Nintendo.

Sensing the market is due for a short-term rebound, Lindzon covered his short positions Tuesday morning, but fears the market won't be able to make any serious headway unless oil prices tumble back into the $60-$80 range.

Barring that, he's still hoping oil surges to $200 and forces America to change its habits.

全球通脹失控 息口前景朦朧

朱家明
23/6/2008 14:30

上月香港通脹創出1997年10月亞洲金融風暴以來最高紀錄的5.7%，上週就先後有兩間銀行削減樓宇按揭優惠，即等同變相提高按揭利率；若銀行三個月同業拆息繼續上揚，不排除香港自身有加息壓力。另上週傳出泰國及印度央行曾拋售美元，支持當地貨幣阻止跌勢，而G8財長會議亦關注石油價格上升帶動通脹惡化。在當前世界經濟環境下，資金流向開始改變，資金會徹離被受通脹困擾的新興市場，但流向美元資產就值得詳細研究，因為美國經濟被受次按打擊，加息可謂有心無力。熱錢會流向石油、農產品還是黄金呢？值得投資者大衆細心思量。

恆指主震巳過 餘震威力仍在

上週本欄已指出恆指短線略作反彈，全週恆指升153點收報22745，首選數浪方式C-3-III-iv或於上週以平台浪行畢全程，今週III浪會進入第五個最後跌浪，目標仍然維持頭肩頂量度跌幅21800，因為III-iii以伸延浪運行，相信III-v不會再以延續浪模式下跌。C-3-III-v預期在六月底前完結，恆指在七月會進入C-4浪作出反彈，樂觀預期反彈目標回補先前下跌列口約24000水平。

中央控制物價 留意企業盈利

中央出手加油價及電價，但同時就壓仰電媒價格；刺激石化類及電力類股份造好，但煤炭類及航空類則受影響而股價下跌。而市場普遍相信宏觀調控持續，多次調高銀行存款準備金後，上調息率的機會仍然存在，內房股受到影響而全線下挫。上週五(六月廿日)收市後，(2600)中國鋁業發出盈利預警，勢必拖累國指今週的表現，小心國指形成頭肩頂利淡形態。

Consumer confidence sinks to 16-year-plus low

Tuesday June 24, 4:02 pm ET By Ellen Simon, AP Business Writer

Consumer confidence takes unexpectedly sharp spill in June, home prices sag to 2004 levels

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. consumers are the gloomiest they've been since the tail end of the last prolonged recession. Inflation, sinking home values and soaring gas prices have pushed confidence to the lowest level since 1992. Consumers' view of the economic future has never been lower, raising worries that already weak consumer spending could deteriorate further.

"From a consumer perspective, this is the most troubling economy since the 1980s," said Mark Vitner, an economist at Wachovia Corp.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, released Tuesday, fell to 50.4 this month, the lowest reading since February 1992 and half what it was a year ago. The index dropped more steeply than expected from 58.1 in May. The consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR was for a more modest decline to 56.5 for June.

Separately, home prices continued to tumble. April's decline in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index was the steepest since its 2000 inception.

Inflation, political flux and job insecurity have created an "uncertainty more acute, perhaps, than any time since 9-11," said William Hummer, chief economist at Wayne Hummer Investments.
"I don't think this can be purged immediately by an election or anything else," he said. "I think it's endemic, deep-rooted and likely to persist."

The last prolonged U.S. recession was from July 1990 to March 1991. The most recent recession began in March 2001 and ended that November.

While the economy currently continues to grow, thanks to strong exports, "there's a real gulf between an economy being held up by exports and what's happening in people's everyday lives," Wachovia's Vitner said.

"Most people live in the domestic economy," he said.

Tax rebates buoyed consumer spending in May and incentives from General Motors Corp. may entice consumers to keep spending this summer, analysts are worried about whether they'll have extra money come fall.

Home owners who bought in the last five years are unlikely to pocket a windfall from selling anytime soon. All 20 cities tracked by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index, released Tuesday, posted annual declines, as prices rolled back to levels last seen in August 2004. The index fell by 15.3 percent in April versus a year ago. The narrower 10-city index declined 16.3 percent in April, the largest decline in its more than two-decade history.

Economists expect home prices to keep dropping through 2009, with the most pessimistic saying the total decline will be double the drop so far.

That uncertainty is reflected in consumers' moods. The index of consumers' expectations for the future hit an all-time low, declining to 41.0 from 47.3 in May. The index has fallen by half over the last year.

Consumers' appraisal of the current job market also grew more pessimistic. Those saying that jobs are "hard to get" increased to 30.5 percent from 28.3 percent in May. Those claiming jobs are "plentiful" declined to 14.1 percent from 16.1 percent.

Expectations for the job market in the months ahead also deteriorated, with 35.5 percent of consumers expecting fewer jobs available, up from 32.3 percent in May. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined to 12.3 percent from 14.1 percent.
The consumer confidence report is derived from responses received through June 18 from a survey of 5,000 representative U.S. households.

On Wall Street stocks sagged in the late afternoon in a day of seesaw trading. The Dow Jones industrial average was down 31.92 to 11,810.44, after falling more than 100 points in earlier trading. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 3.46 to 1,314.54, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 13.68 to 2,372.06. AP Business Writer J.W. Elphinstone in New York contributed to this report.

實戰理論：氣氛悲觀見底不遠

自五月以來的跌浪，跌幅較筆者預期為深，在25000點樓下建議買貨，平均價也要24000樓上，捱了超過1500點。但從種種訊號中揣測，相信大市離見底應不遠。還幸在恒指跌穿23800點之時執行紀律，減持一些衍生工具，現時應可密切留意，待上升訊號一出，便可入市補回。近期的市況其實跟去年10月底，以及今年3月中頗為相似，這正是大轉角市出現前的徵兆。去年10月底市場情緒全面向好，指數一日升一日跌，不斷出現裂口，令持貨過夜的風險增加。筆者當時的策略是不去估頂，只做「快閃」。今年3月的情況剛好相反，市場情緒悲觀到極點，也是升升跌跌，難以捉摸。當時金價狂升，人人皆說買商品沽股票，筆者的策略是分段吸納，不去估底，直至金價急跌，美元大反彈，便確認股市的熊二反彈浪。今次情況也是類似，氣氛悲觀，一直不知底位在那裏，但油價創新高，通脹成憂慮，持貨者同樣面對市場跌勢的驚嚇。

油價已是強弩之末

然而，在悲觀淡勢之下，其實期指倉底已出現變化的訊號，期指成交大增，兼且經常高水；股票成交萎縮，絕不似派發。技術指標RSI已現背馳，MACD亦似要破位。油價要靠以色列在每一次回落之時就話要打伊朗來承托，相信已是強弩之末。在現水平的策略一定不會是沽貨！特別是股價已回落至合理水平，沒有理由要在這些低位去止蝕的。現時應多加點注意力留意期油及美元的走勢，等待一些確認的訊號出現。藍籌股中，港交所（388）及中移動（941）已經漸見強勢，應是升浪的領導股；但中資股也不可忽略，從中央的政策舉動中，應可預計中資股將會發難，現在只等時機而已。此時機應在A-H差價再收窄之時出現。

作者沈振盈為證監會持牌人士