Oil: Fundamentals Trump Rhetoric from Saudis, Politicians, Barron's

Posted Jun 23, 2008 10:50am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities
Related: RDS-A, XOM, COP, OIL, USO, DUG, CVX

The much ballyhooed Saudi oil summit came and went this weekend with a pledge from the hosts to increase daily production by 200,000 barrels, which just isn't enough supply to bring prices lower. (Notably, 200,00 barrels is the same amount as production lost at a Shell installation in Nigeria after rebel attacks last week.)

This weekend also brought a Barron's cover story declaring oil to be in a bubble that's ready to pop.

After an overnight rally in London, oil prices were recently declining in New York as the dollar rallied - a stronger dollar being just one factor Barron's cited as a possible killer of the oil boom. But for me, the story recalls the old saying: "If 'ifs' and 'butts' were candy and nuts, everyday would be Christmas."

Also, bubbles rarely peak when 'everyone' is calling for their demise, as Henry and I discuss in the accompanying video. When reading and hearing the chatter about the "oil bubble" about to pop, consider another old saying: "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent," as was the case with tech stocks in the 1990s or housing earlier this decade.

Finally, $100 oil isn't exactly cheap, as Barron's concedes. With all the talk about speculation driving the market and politicians recommending all sorts of bizarre and anti-market "solutions," the bottom line is still the bottom line: Oil supply is not keeping up with demand and no amount of rhetoric from OPEC or U.S. officials can change that fundamental truth.